2:12 PM PT -- Recap by www.altavest.com -- ECB President Draghi said that in their last meeting, they discussed the possibility of easing measures to fend off the prospect of deflation. MarketWatch reports that Draghi says that inflation expectations in the medium to long-term remain “firmly anchored…that the ECB Governing Council is concerned that a long spell of low inflation could pose a risk to those expectations.”
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For the week ended April 12, unemployment insurance claims increased by 2,000, to 304,000, but below expectations of 315,000. Over the last month, the new claims avg. declined by 4,750 to 312,000, the lowest reading since October of 2007. For the week ended April 5, continuing claims fell by 11,000 to 2.74M, the lowest print since December 2007, with the four-week average down by 32,500 to 2.79M. The Philly Fed mfg. index for April jumped to 16.6, better than projections of 10.0, and well beyond the March level of 9.0. Inventories improved from negative 6.8 to negative 1.5, with new-orders going from 5.7 in March to 14.8 in April.
This shortened 4-day pre-Easter week closed with the June S&P 500 gaining over 40 points from last Friday's close.
From Mark Hulbert on MarketWatch; "Since the DJIA was created in 1896, the market has produced a 5.2% annualized return during the winter months and 1.7% in the summer...this pattern works enough of the time to be significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use…But if you’re investing in a tax-deferred account...you may want to consider going to cash and thereby take the rest of the spring and summer off from stressing about the stock market." Past performance is never guaranteed to repeat, but if historical odds unfold, premium selling may be a worthwhile investment strategy these coming months.
From April 14 to April 25, the June S&P 500 has rallied an average of 29 points in 14 of the last 15 years. Past seasonal performance is no guarantee of future results. Resistance remains at 1867, with support at 1800 and 1754.